It's not just what you own.It's when you own it.
Capital · Cycles · Decisions
Independent research on macroeconomics, capital flows, asset cycles and capital allocation decisions.
CURRENT MACRO VIEW
This dashboard is deliberately blank until a dated assessment is written. No market data or positioning has been invented.
Awaiting manual assessment
Awaiting manual assessment
Awaiting manual assessment
Awaiting manual assessment
Awaiting manual assessment
Awaiting manual assessment
Awaiting manual assessment
08.08.2026 · Cross-cycle
A practical framework for avoiding overpayment, even for a high-quality business.
31.07.2026 · Cross-cycle
Returns matter, but surviving the cycle matters more.
22.07.2026 · Company-specific
Starting with cash helps cut through layers of accounting profit.
15.07.2026 · Cross-cycle
Record the thesis before committing capital so every decision can be reviewed honestly.
CAPITAL FLOW
Money and credit leave traces. The work is to follow those traces without confusing an analytical framework with a guaranteed signal.
Explore capital flow ↗Where financial conditions are loosening or tightening.
Which balance sheets are expanding and who receives the credit.
How changes in the cost of capital alter relative value.
How money moves between cash, equities, gold and real assets.
ASSET CYCLES
Early Cycle · Mid Cycle · Late Cycle · Defensive is a map for inquiry, not a precise market-timing model.
THE DUONG MACRO FRAMEWORK
A repeatable decision chain for navigating uncertainty without pretending that cycles run on a fixed clock.
Observe where money and credit are being created, priced and withdrawn.
→Identify the phase of the economy and the different clocks across asset markets.
→Build base, bull and bear cases instead of relying on one precise forecast.
→Allocate according to probability, timing, downside and the ability to stay invested.
JOURNAL
A track record of thinking: decisions, reviews, mistakes, lessons and changes of view.
CLOSING MANIFESTO