THESIS ARCHIVE
Every thesis should state what is believed, why it may happen, the scenarios that matter and the evidence that would prove it wrong.
PUBLISHED NOTES
Older articles keep their original URLs while using the expanded thesis and review structure.
08.08.2026 · Cross-cycle
A practical framework for avoiding overpayment, even for a high-quality business.
31.07.2026 · Cross-cycle
Returns matter, but surviving the cycle matters more.
22.07.2026 · Company-specific
Starting with cash helps cut through layers of accounting profit.
15.07.2026 · Cross-cycle
Record the thesis before committing capital so every decision can be reviewed honestly.