Money Supply
How liquidity is created, transmitted and withdrawn.
MACRO
Cycles are not
clockwork.
We can study where the economy may be in a cycle. We cannot know the exact moment that cycle will turn.
EVERYTHING MOVES IN CYCLES
Observe the system.
Respect uncertainty.
Rates rise and fall. Credit expands and contracts. Economies move through recovery, expansion, euphoria and contraction before a new cycle begins.
Credit
How lending standards and balance sheets shape economic activity.
Interest Rates
How the price of money changes discount rates and behavior.
Inflation
How prices, wages and expectations interact across the cycle.
Growth
How activity moves from recovery to expansion and contraction.
Policy
How monetary and fiscal choices alter incentives and capital flows.
THE FUTURE IS UNCERTAIN
Do not ask where the market must go.
Ask which scenarios are possible.
Ask where probability appears to lean.
Ask what evidence would prove the thesis wrong.
THE DUONG MACRO FRAMEWORK
From observation
to allocation.
A repeatable decision chain for navigating uncertainty without pretending that cycles run on a fixed clock.
Follow Capital
Observe where money and credit are being created, priced and withdrawn.
→Understand Cycles
Identify the phase of the economy and the different clocks across asset markets.
→Think in Probabilities
Build base, bull and bear cases instead of relying on one precise forecast.
→Position Capital
Allocate according to probability, timing, downside and the ability to stay invested.